Alameda County Real Estate Market Forecast and Update for 2021

The Alameda County housing market perform surprisingly well throughout 2020, despite the coronavirus pandemic and economic slowdown. Looking forward, forecasts for the Alameda real estate market suggest that home prices will continue to climb for the foreseeable future. This is largely the result of a supply and demand imbalance that is affecting many cities across the San Francisco Bay Area.

Positive Forecast for Alameda Housing Markets in 2021

Inventory is way down in Alameda housing markets like Berkeley, Hayward and Fremont. The demand from home buyers, on the other hand, remains high. These trends are putting upward pressure on home prices and making the real estate market much more competitive.

The Alameda County real estate market is currently experiencing three important trends. These trends will likely continue to affect home buyers as we move through 2021 and into early 2022. Beyond that is anyone’s guess.

As of February 2021, the local real estate market is being influenced by the following:

1. Significant home price gains
2. Very low inventory levels (i.e., not enough homes for sale)
3. Fast home sales driven by strong demand

Let’s take a closer look at these trends that are affecting the Alameda housing market forecast for 2021 – 2022.

1. Home prices have risen significantly and could continue to climb.

According to a report from the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.), the median sale price for existing single-family homes in Alameda County rose by 21% from January 2020 to January 2021. That was one of the largest gains of any county in California, during that 12-month period.

This might seem counterintuitive, when you consider the fact we were experiencing a global pandemic for most of that time. But there’s no denying the data. Home prices have risen significantly across California, and especially within Bay Area real estate markets like those in Alameda County.

Related: East Bay end-of-year summary

2. Low inventory is making things challenging for buyers.

According to the C.A.R. report mentioned above, the “unsold inventory Index” for Alameda County dropped to 1.3 in January of 2021. This index allows us to track inventory levels over time. A year ago, the unsold inventory index for the county was sitting at 2.0, and even that was considered low by historical standards. It has gotten tighter since then.

The point here is that the Alameda real estate market is very tight right now, when measured by the number of homes for sale. Buyers who are planning to enter this housing market during 2021 should be prepared for stiff competition.

3. Homes are selling fast due to strong demand.

Given the inventory situation mentioned above, it should come as no surprise that homes within the Alameda real estate market are selling fast. In January 2021, properties listed for sale within the county spent a median of nine days on the market before going under contract. That was down from a median of 20 days back in January of 2020.

Last month, more than half of all homes sold within Alameda County were sold above the original listing price. That means buyers are driving up the sale price by attempting to outbid one another. This indicates a highly competitive real estate market with strong demand.

Home sales figures reinforce this notion. According to the February C.A.R. report cited earlier, home sales in the county rose by a whopping 53% over the past year or so. That was one of the largest year-over-year increases among California’s 58 counties, and also one of the highest nationwide.

To quote the C.A.R. report:

“More than 80 percent of all counties – 42 of 51 – tracked by C.A.R. recorded a year-over-year increase in closed sales, with both Calaveras and Mariposa gaining the most from last year at 69.2 percent, followed by Alameda (53.6 percent), and San Benito (50 percent).”

The Bottom Line: Buyers Be Ready

The bottom line to all of this is that the Alameda County real estate market is still highly competitive. A lopsided supply-and-demand situation is forcing buyers to compete for limited inventory. It’s also putting upward pressure on home prices. Forecasts for the Alameda real estate market suggest that these trends could continue through the rest of this year and into 2022.

The message to buyers is clear: Be prepared to “pounce” when the right property comes along. Because it probably won’t be on the market for very long. Current market conditions tend to favor sellers over buyers, especially where inventory is concerned. So proceed accordingly.

Disclaimer: This article includes housing market forecasts and predictions based on third-party data and analysis. Such projections are the equivalent of an educated guess and should be treated as such.