Sonoma County Real Estate Market Forecast for 2025

As a Bay Area mortgage company, we do our best to keep local home buyers and homeowners informed about current market conditions. We regularly publish real estate reports that include detailed insight and analysis.

Today we turn our sights on Wine Country, with a 2024 housing market update for Sonoma County, California plus an outlook for 2025.

Sonoma County Market Update for 2025

The real estate market in Sonoma County, California has cooled down a bit over the past couple of years. Home prices have been mostly flat, and predictions suggest that this could continue into 2025 as well.

Like many real estate markets across the country, Sonoma County has experienced some wild swings over the past few years. The COVID pandemic had a lot to do with this.

Starting in 2020, California Wine Country regions like Sonoma and Napa experienced a surge in home-buying activity. This reduced supply levels all across the region and sent home prices soaring.

But by 2022, the Sonoma real estate market had cooled down considerably, as did the rest of California. Rising mortgage rates caused home buyers to pull back, resulting in slower sales and an eventual decline in home prices.

That brings us up to the present.

Home Prices Mostly Flat Going Into 2025

Home prices across Sonoma County have risen steadily for many years, with one exception. The median home value for the county declined during the second half of 2022, as part of the nationwide cooling trend mentioned previously.

A quick summary: Sonoma County home values skyrocketed during the pandemic years, peaked at nearly $800,000 in the summer of 2022, and then fell to a “floor” of around $761,000 by spring 2023.

Here are the median home prices for major cities across the county, as of late 2024:

• Cloverdale: $640,000
• Cotati: $733,000
• Healdsburg: $1,095,000
• Petaluma: $901,000
• Rohnert Park: $706,000
• Santa Rosa: $716,000
• Windsor: $801,000

The market has stabilized over the past six months or so, with supply and demand becoming more balanced. As a result, analysts don’t expect Sonoma County home prices to do much in 2025.

The above graph is based on data from Zillow with annotations from our own researchers. As you can see, prices stabilized toward the end of 2024 and were basically flat heading into 2025.

Housing Inventory Has Improved in Wine Country

In Sonoma County, housing market inventory has improved steadily over the past couple of years. There are more homes on the market these days, giving buyers additional options and increasing their chance for success.

According to an October 2024 report from the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.), Sonoma County had an “unsold inventory index” of 3.7 months. That’s a big improvement from a few years ago, when the index was closer to 1 month.

(The “months of supply” metric measures how long it would take to sell all homes currently for sale if no new homes were listed and sales continued at the current pace. A lower number favors sellers, while a higher number favors buyers.)

In terms of supply, the Sonoma County housing market is not nearly as tight as it was during the pandemic, when buyers were snatching up properties. And supply levels could increase even more, as we move into 2025.

It’s a Slower Market These Days

When it comes to measuring the overall speed or pace of a particular real estate market, economists often use a metric known as the median days on market (DOM).

This is the middle value for the length of time it takes for properties to sell, once they’re listed.

• A low median days on market suggests a fast-paced market where properties sell quickly.
• A higher median indicates a slower market where properties take more time to sell.

According to the October 2024 C.A.R. report mentioned above, the Sonoma County real estate market had a median DOM of 58 days. A “fast” housing market has a median DOM closer to 20 days, or lower.

Based on this and similar reports, the Sonoma County real estate market seems to be moving at a fairly sluggish pace. That’s good news for home buyers. It gives buyers more time for price research, inspections, and other due diligence.

Real Estate Market Outlook for 2025

No one can predict future housing market trends with complete accuracy. But we can make an educated guess based on current trends and conditions.

The most likely scenario is that Sonoma County home prices will either remain flat or rise slightly in 2025. For home buyers, this could remove some of the urgency and competition from the house-hunting process.

Additionally, higher inventory levels could make it easier for home buyers to find a suitable property within budget.

Disclaimer: This report contains predictions for the Sonoma County housing market extending into 2025. Such long-range forecasts are the equivalent of an educated guess and should be treated as such.

Sonoma County, California: Facts for Home Buyers

Sonoma County is located in Northern California, about 45 miles north of San Francisco. It’s bordered by the Pacific Ocean to the west and the Mayacamas Mountains to the east.

The county covers approximately 1,576 square miles, with a diverse landscape that includes coastal cliffs, rolling hills, redwood forests, and vineyard-covered valleys.

Sonoma County’s climate varies by region. Coastal areas enjoy a mild, marine climate, while the inland regions are warmer and drier, ideal for agriculture.

Agriculture and Winemaking

Sonoma County’s economy and identity largely centers around agriculture, particularly wine production. With over 400 wineries and more than 60,000 acres of vineyards, the county is one of the world’s premier wine regions.

Sonoma produces a variety of high-quality wines, especially Chardonnay, Pinot Noir, and Cabernet Sauvignon. Besides wine, the county supports an agricultural industry that includes dairy farms, apple orchards, and organic produce.

Key Cities and Communities

Sonoma County has eight cities and towns along with nearly 30 census-designated places. Here are some of the most notable cities.

• Healdsburg: This picturesque city is a premium destination for wine tourism. It offers boutique hotels, tasting rooms, and a charming town square. Healdsburg is also one of the most sought-after real estate markets in Sonoma County, with price tags to match.
• Petaluma: This city is known for its historic downtown and Victorian homes. Petaluma sits closer to San Francisco, which makes it popular with commuters. The city is also known for its riverfront, breweries, and artisan shops.
• Santa Rosa: As the county seat and largest city, Santa Rosa offers a blend of suburban and urban amenities including parks and shopping centers. It’s also a hub for healthcare and education.
• Sonoma: Known for its historic plaza, the city of Sonoma is rich in history and known for its wine culture and historic charm. It is a quieter community that strives to preserve its historical heritage.

Recreation and Lifestyle

Sonoma County offers an outdoor-oriented lifestyle with access to beaches, parks, and hiking trails, such as those in Armstrong Redwoods State Natural Reserve.

The area’s food and wine culture is apparent in its many farmers’ markets, farm-to-table restaurants, and seasonal festivals. Residents enjoy a relaxed, community-focused lifestyle with easy access to cultural and natural amenities.

The Real Estate Market

Home prices in Sonoma County are well above the national average, largely due to the supply shortages mentioned earlier. Some cities have very few homes on the market, when compared to the number of buyers seeking them.

Despite this imbalance, the Sonoma County real estate market doesn’t move as fast as some other U.S. counties and metro areas. It’s an active market, but not a frenzied one.